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Staying Alive, Secrets of Supplements
April 14, 2006 Matthew Edlund M.D., M.O.H. | |||||||||||
Probably. A major reason: the quality of our information. In most cases, we have no good idea whether supplements help or hurt. Don’t expect the FDA to provide help. By law, the Food and Drug Administration can’t look into supplement use — until it injures your limbs and threatens your life. Bias and Human Studies Studying human beings is tough. Getting answers you can believe is tougher. Unlike scientifically studied peas or mice, people are usually not genetically identical. Even with identical twins, environments differ. The hormones and chemicals that change health, behavior and sexual orientation start in the womb. To figure out if something works you have to use the right statistics. Unfortunately, research statistics functions on assumptions about which the public rarely hears. One assumption is that study subjects are pretty much identical for what you are looking at. That’s a tough obstacle, but there are many others. The problem in studying people, particularly on questions like food, is that there are too many variables. Biostatisticians then try to “control” these variables using techniques based on another bunch of statistical assumptions. The problems you do not control for, or even imagine, may totally bias results. A good example were the studies of the pill performed in the 1970’s and 80’s. Run out of the Harvard-led Nurse’s Health Study, ten of thousands of nurses were followed for decades. From this “gold standard study” the answers rang out loud and clear — the pill decreased heart attack deaths by 50%. To students like myself, attending the Harvard School of Public Health in the eighties, the result was incredible: the most common cause of death of American women could be cut in half! National policy was obvious — women needed to be on the pill. How could they get it so wrong? In turns out the nurses who took the pill were different. They exercised more, ate different foods, adopted new health practices faster than nurses who did not. These variables were not correctly controlled. Similar biases fouled up studies on the pill and breast cancer. National guidelines for treating women were literally dead wrong. How We Came to Use Supplements Supplement use came about because different populations demonstrated a lot less disease. Why did Okinawans live to 107 times more often than Americans? Why did southern Italians have so much less prostate cancer? The answer was lifestyle. Many studies tried to define why. Often the answer they came up with was diet. For most supplements, their “efficacy” is based on large populations diet studies. Rarely are the supplements themselves studied alone, or properly. So don’t be surprised when large, carefully controlled studies show supplements don’t work. Their effectiveness has been based on a series of assumptions stacked on top of assumptions. One basic assumption is that somehow whole cultures and lifestyles can have their disease preventing character concentrated into a single pill. Follow The Money There are many studies that supplements do work. Many have been sponsored by the industry making them. The answers they come up with are expected. Epidemiologists design human studies. They have identified literally thousands of biases that change study results. David Sackett, one the main theorists, has shown over 1,500 biases just in selecting who enters a study. Supplement and pharmaceutical companies know how to design studies that show their stuff works. That’s why we have an FDA. Except the FDA is pretty much toothless on supplements. Even when supplements makers are trying to be honest, their researchers often are not conscious of the hidden biases of human research. And there are billions of dollars on the line.
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